Whether Biden Wins or Loses, the DNC Has Already Won

W.J. Astore

My Response to a Friend Who Thinks Biden Will Win

A friend of mine thinks Joe Biden has a strong chance of winning reelection in November. He thinks the economy will continue to get better and that Donald Trump may yet be convicted of, well, something. I am far more skeptical about Biden’s chances of victory this fall. Here’s what I wrote to him this morning:

You’re betting on an improving economy and the conviction of Trump as the catalysts for another Biden win.  To me, economic growth is very uneven, with an “improving” economy measured mainly by the performance of Wall Street.  Few benefits are trickling down to the working classes.  Meanwhile, we don’t know if Trump will be convicted of anything; also, I don’t think a conviction that’s seen as politically motivated will hurt Trump.  If anything, depending on the conviction and its seriousness, it could even help him.

The largest bloc of voters are those Americans who don’t vote.  You have to give people a reason to get off their duffs and vote for you.  For Obama, it was “hope” and “change” and idealism.  Biden won in 2020 because of the pandemic and Trump’s incompetent leadership.  In 2024, Biden is increasingly “Genocide Joe” for youth and progressives; he’s taking his own base for granted, thinking that people will opt for him over Trump because the latter is too divisive.

But what may happen is that Democrats and Independents just stay home, or vote third party, while Trump loyalists show up at the polls.

We can bookmark this conversation if you wish and come back to it this November. We are, after all, trying to predict the future.  My guess is that Biden loses; you’re guessing he’s going to win.  We’ll see.

I also believe that if Trump wins, the DNC will blame the voters rather than the weakness of the Biden/Harris ticket.  I’m sure Putin will also be blamed, as will any 3rd-party candidates like Stein of RFK Jr.  The DNC will then fundraise off of fear of Trump.  No matter what, the DNC will win.  What counts as a “loss” for the DNC is allowing a progressive to run.

It’s some “democracy” we live in when voters are shamed for voting for someone other than Joe Biden.  (The Trumpers, of course, are universally dismissed as irredeemable deplorables.) So I know I will be shamed for not voting for Joe (or the Don) this November.

As Yoda the Jedi Master said: “Difficult to see. Always in motion the future.” I just don’t see a lot of enthusiasm for Biden. I see Biden as a figurehead of Neo-liberal economic policies at home and Neo-conservative war policies abroad. Otherwise known as Dickensian conditions for the working classes here and lots of bombs and artillery shells falling on “foreign” peoples of color.

Meanwhile, I doubt the DNC will allow Biden to appear in any presidential debates. Too risky. Biden will largely “campaign” by reading from teleprompters at carefully staged appearances.

Biden, to state the obvious, is not in his prime. If reelected, he’ll be 82 and will serve until he’s 86. Voters have legitimate concerns about his health and his endurance. Meanwhile, his vice president, Kamala Harris, isn’t popular and lends little credibility to the ticket. It doesn’t bode well.

I already had four years of Trump; they were more than enough for me. I’ve had three years of Biden and they’ve been more than enough. Yet the RNC and DNC want to offer me a Trump/Biden rematch, and I just can’t stomach it.

I guess I just hate democracy.