Turmoil in Russia!

W.J. Astore

Is Putin’s Grip Weakening?

News of the rebellion of the Wagner mercenary group in Russia and the exile of its leader have led to confident announcements of Vladimir Putin’s weakening grip on power. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the rebellion was “the latest failure” in Putin’s war against Ukraine, and NBC News declared “Putin’s rule is now more uncertain than ever.”

Vladimir Putin and the leader of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin

Perhaps so. Wars often act as an accelerant to change, generating political chaos in their wake. The results of chaos, obviously, don’t lend themselves to predictability. Who knew in 1914, when the guns of August sounded, that four years later four empires would have collapsed under the strain of war (the Russian Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and the German Second Reich).

President Joe Biden was unusually frank in March of 2022 when he declared that Putin “cannot remain in power” due to his decision to invade Ukraine. Be careful what you wish for, Mr. President. Is overthrowing Putin truly a wise goal for global stability?

I honestly don’t know. A weaker, possibly fragmented Russia could increase the chances of nuclear war. A struggle for power within Russia could lead to the emergence of hardline leader who might make the West nostalgic for the relative predictability of Putin.

Most of us have heard the saying: better the devil you know than the one you don’t know. (This isn’t to suggest Putin is diabolical, of course.) In World War I, many of the allies professed to hate the Kaiser; his eventual successor as leader of the German people was Adolf Hitler. Again, wars may unleash elemental and fundamental changes, and change isn’t always for the better.

So, my position on the Russia-Ukraine War remains unchanged. Negotiate a truce. Use diplomacy to put a permanent end to this war. If Putin is truly weakened, this might be the best of times to seek a diplomatic settlement. After all, if Putin is truly worried about his grip on power within Russia, he might be open to ending the war largely on Ukraine’s terms so he can redirect his attention to consolidating his power base.

War has been given plenty of chances. Why not give peace a chance?

17 thoughts on “Turmoil in Russia!”

  1. Peace is not to be given a chance because there is more Power [the ability to force other Human Brings to do what You want them to do regardless of what they want to do] and Wealth [the ability to buy and sell Power for a profit] to be gained with, from, and by War.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Like i asked yesterday on BV Substack: On what basis should anybody believe anything that anybody in Moscow says about anything any more than that they should believe anything that anybody in Kyiv or DC says about anything?

    Or what Anybody else says about Anything, no matter Where they are? Especially when it comes to the “coup” in Russia.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. I am absolutely in favor of President Putin’s remaining in power (w/FM Lavrov), leading the people and land of the Russian Federation. Regime change, of course, is just as absolutely in order at various locales on both sides of the Atlantic….

    Like

    1. Vladimir Putin has steadily and effectively governed his nation for two decades following on the absolutely disastrous “Shock Doctrine” Clinton/Yeltsin 1990s. Now this loud-mouth former catering chef (whose name will rapidly fade from the passing scene) has seen his erstwhile “rebellion” fizzle out in less than two days. And this we should regard as “Turmoil in Russia”? I’ve seen Friday-night college fraternity binges last longer (at least until Monday).

      Alexander Mercouris of The Duran (June 25th) has written a typically detailed analysis of this bizarre weekend: Prigozhin Uprising Collapses, Putin in Control, Prigozhin Agrees to Exile in Belarus, Wagner Under MoD. (As time permits later today, I’ll try to provide something of a transcript.)

      Liked by 1 person

  4. I don’t think there’s a hope in Hell Putin will negotiate on US IMPOSED Ukraine terms.

    Those terms are Russia must unconditionally SURRENDER, and unilaterally withdraw from Crimea and the majority RUSSIAN speaking areas of Ukrainian Citizens, the proxy US-Ukraine government has been shelling since the 2014 US/CIA Coup-Regime Change of the elected Russian friendly government, installing the Neo-Nazi US proxy anti-Russian government, BEFORE Ukraine will even talk to the Russians.

    When there is no more Ukrainian sacrificial lambs/cannon fodder left to fight the US proxy WAR against Russia, what comes next? NATO?

    Every Day this slaughter of Russians and Ukrainians continues brings us closet to the DAY AFTER when it will be too late!

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Speaking of “Turmoil” and where on Planet Earth one might discover hilarious examples of it, Max Blumenthal and Wyatt Reed of The GrayZone (June 26, 2023) have a field day describing The real casualties of Russia’s ‘civil war’: the Beltway expert class. From the introduction (individual cases follow):

    [begin quote]

    Numerous serious casualties were incurred during Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s supposed “coup.” The Grayzone offers an in-depth look at the massacre carried out by some of America’s top Russia experts against their own credibility.

    When Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin launched a supposed revolt against Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 23, sending his forces on a march toward Moscow following a series of tirades against the country’s defense establishment, Washington’s expert class overflowed with an orgy of regime change fantasies.

    For just over 12 hours, everyone from former US ambassador to Russia and noted Hitler apologist Michael McFaul to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to neocon pundit Anne Applebaum exploded with seemingly libidinal excitement about a supposed “civil war” that was certain to feature “Russians…killing Russians,” along with “lots of casualties” and Putin “probably hiding somewhere.”

    It was as though the Soviet Union was collapsing all over again, and Prigozhin, a character named on the FBI’s most wanted list whom the US government has sanctioned for leading what it described as a “transnational criminal organization,” was suddenly a white knight storming into Moscow to liberate Russia from “the Putin regime” on the back of a tank. Move over, Juan Guaido.

    Expecting a bloodbath and seismic political upheaval, corporate networks like CNN had budgeted wall-to-wall coverage of the coup that wasn’t, filling cable news green rooms with rent-a-generals, K Street think tankers, and war-hungry former diplomatic corps hacks.

    On the afternoon of June 24, however, news broke across the US that Prigozhin had struck a deal with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to end his protest and go into exile. Thus ended a largely bloodless affair that ultimately saw fewer documented deaths than the January 6 Capitol Riot.

    Though the supposed revolt in Russia burned out faster than a Leopard tank on the way to Zaporizhzhia, we now know that a number of serious casualties were incurred inside the DC Beltway. The Grayzone obtained an exclusive look at the massacre some of America’s top Russia experts carried out against their own credibility.

    [end quote]

    Read on MacDuff. … And save a copy of this one for posterity. A veritable Tempest in a Teapot. And all on a Saturday afternoon.

    For another treatment of this tiresomely tedious phenomenon (in verse, from 2006) see Boobie Access Punditry (from Fernando Po, U.S.A., America’s post-literate to Plato’s Cave)

    Liked by 4 people

    1. Thank You, Michael, for the Blumentha/Reed The GrayZone piece. i’ve cross-posted it to BV Substack for those folks’ consideration.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. The predictions are still coming. Saw this at CNN this AM:

      One key takeaway: Russian President Vladimir Putin looks weak as a result. “It feels like the beginning of the end for him,” writes CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. As Michael points out, US/NATO is having a collective wet dream on the prospect of regime change in Russia.

        US/NATO/Western Propaganda will never show how the Leader of a Major Power addresses the Citizenry.
        President Putin’s speech to the Nation Today.
        Naturally the US/NATO calls it Propaganda, as if there was no US/NATO Propaganda, but it makes common sense to the majority of the Russian People supporting Putin in the WAR against the US and it’s obedient 31 NATO Vassal States. A World WAR is in the making, and the majority over here are oblivious to it, not worth talking about in Public with so much at stake!

        I am addressing citizens of Russia, the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement agencies and security services, and the soldiers and commanders who are now fighting in their combat positions, repulsing enemy attacks and doing it heroically – I know this as I spoke once again with the commanders of all sections of the frontline last night. I am also addressing those who were dragged into this criminal adventure through deceit or threats and pushed onto the path of a grave crime – an armed mutiny.

        Today, Russia is waging a tough struggle for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their patrons. The entire military, economic and informational machine of the West is directed against us. We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to be and remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history.

        This battle, when the fate of our nation is being decided, requires consolidation of all forces. It requires unity, consolidation and a sense of responsibility, and everything that weakens us, any strife that our external enemies can use and do so to subvert us from within, must be discarded.
        Therefore, any actions that split our nation are essentially a betrayal of our people, of our comrades-in-arms who are now fighting at the frontline. This is a knife in the back of our country and our people.

        A blow like this was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was fighting in World War I. But the victory was stolen from it: intrigues, squabbles and politicking behind the backs of the army and the nation turned into the greatest turmoil, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, and the loss of vast territories, ultimately leading to the tragedy of the civil war.

        Russians were killing Russians and brothers were killing brothers, while all sorts of political adventurers and foreign forces profited from the situation by tearing the country apart to divide it.
        We will not allow this to happen again. We will protect our people and our statehood from any threats, including from internal betrayal.

        What we are facing is essentially a betrayal. Inflated ambitions and personal interests have led to treason – treason against our country, our people and the common cause which Wagner Group soldiers and commanders were fighting and dying for shoulder to shoulder, together with our other units and troops. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artyomovsk, towns and villages in Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossiya and the unity of the Russian world. Their memory and glory have also been betrayed by those who are attempting to stage a revolt and are pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide – and ultimately, towards defeat and surrender.

        Once again, any internal revolt is a deadly threat to our statehood and our nation. It is a blow to Russia, to our people. Our actions to defend the Fatherland from this threat will be harsh. All those who have consciously chosen the path of betrayal, planned an armed mutiny and taken the path of blackmail and terrorism, will inevitably be punished and will answer before the law and our people.

        The Armed Forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders. Additional counterterrorism measures are now in effect in Moscow, the Moscow Region and several other regions. Resolute action will also be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult; in effect, the work of civil and military authorities has been blocked.

        As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, and as a citizen of Russia, I will take every effort to defend the country and protect the constitutional order as well as the lives, security and freedom of our citizens.

        Those who staged the mutiny and took up arms against their comrades – they have betrayed Russia and will be brought to account. I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic mistake but make the only right choice: to stop taking part in criminal actions.

        I am certain that we will preserve and defend what we hold dear and sacred, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any hardships and become even stronger.

        Putin is still in charge as the US faces increased division and possible uncivil WAR

        Liked by 1 person

      2. Speaking of “predictions,” the always excellent “b” [Bernhard] at Moon of Alabama (June 26, 2023) pretty much covers all the ground worth traversing: Prigozhin’s Farce Is Over And It Is Clear Who Has Won.

        The Prigozhin’s insurrection farce is over. I had predicted that it would not take long to end:

        “In twelve or so hours things are likely to have calmed down.”

        About eight hours after I published the above Prigozhin had given up and left the scene.

        In-depth analysis and illustrative examples follow:

        . . . [snip] . . .

        Summary prediction:

        I don’t think that there is a chance that Prigozhin will ever have a come back. He is finished and he has only himself to blame for it.

        Unfortunately for The Collected Waste (US/UK/EU/NATO), bigotry and ignorance regarding all things Russian will continue to generate rubbish calling itself “analysis,” while the policies based upon such nonsense only boost the careers of its perpetrators.

        Liked by 2 people

  6. A brief pep talk by President Putin to the People of Russia. That’s what Leaders of a great Nation are expected to do and Putin does it well.

    President Putin Address to citizens of Russia.

    Friends,

    Today, I am addressing the citizens of Russia once again. Thank you for your restraint, cohesion and patriotism. This civic solidarity shows that any blackmail, any attempt to stage domestic turmoil is doomed to fail.

    I will repeat – society and the executive and legislative branches of government at all levels displayed high consolidation. Public organisations, religious denominations, the leading political parties and actually all of Russian society held a firm line, taking an explicit position of supporting constitutional order. The main thing – responsibility for the destiny of the Fatherland – has united everyone, brought our people together.

    I will emphasise that all necessary decisions to neutralise the emerged threat and protect the constitutional system, the life and security of our citizens were made instantly, from the very beginning of the events.

    An armed mutiny would have been suppressed in any event. Mutiny plotters, despite the loss of adequacy, were bound to realise that. They understood everything, including the fact that their actions were criminal in nature, aimed at polarising people and weakening the country, which is currently countering an enormous external threat and unprecedented pressure from the outside. They did this at a time when our comrades are dying on the frontline with the words “Not a step back!”

    However, having betrayed their country and their people, the leaders of this mutiny also betrayed those whom they drew into their crime. They lied to them, pushed them to their death, putting them under attack, forcing them to shoot their people.

    It was exactly this outcome, fratricide, that the enemies of Russia – the neo-Nazis in Kiev, their Western patrons and other national traitors – wanted to see. They wanted Russian soldiers to kill each other; they wanted the military and civilians to die; they wanted Russia to lose eventually, and our society to break up and perish in a bloody feud.

    They were rubbing their hands together and dreaming of revenge for their failures at the frontline and in the course of the so-called counteroffensive, but they miscalculated.

    To be continued.

    Now we’re informed US Intelligence knew this event was in the planning since the middle of the month. Of course the US and it’s 31 NATO Vassal States, 32 Nations against 1 Nation, have wet dreams about Putin regime change in Russia.
    So far all the 32 US/NATO Nations plans to collapse Russia have failed. Putin is much smarter than the European NATO Vassal lemmings following the US lead.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Turmoil in a Toilet Bowl

    Prediction of a past that none have noticed.
    Forecasting failure, calling it “success.”
    Its chance of proving true, not the remotest.
    In fact a flabby, incoherent mess.

    Our owners wish to realize their visions,
    As if belief alone makes dreams come true;
    But fraud as policy makes bad decisions,
    No matter that they lie till we turn blue.

    Yet lying in high places wrecks the nation
    As “military” budgets loot the till,
    Engendering depression and inflation
    While urging proxi Slavs to die and kill.

    They revel in their jaded jubilation.
    The slightest hint of rumor sets them off.
    They practice premature ejaculation.
    At facts and evidence they sneer and scoff.

    The “turmoil” in their toilet bowls they tell you
    Means slaughter in some soup they say they see.
    No matter what Reality befell you,
    They shout: “Look over there behind that tree!”

    Whenever they screw up, “The Russians did it!”
    Whatever crime, shout “Vladimir’s to blame!”
    If workers need a raise, simply forbid it.
    If soldiers want to live, them you must shame.

    The Waste, as we may call ourselves, have blown it.
    We really ought to spare the World more pain.
    Time now to face what we have done and own it,
    And flush our self-made “turmoil” down the drain.

    Michael Murry, “The Misfortune Teller,” Copyright © 2023

    Liked by 3 people

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